A really ugly day wound up only a little ugly. With a little more than an hour to go, the market was still down decisively and so I put in my sell order on AGTHX. In the end, it would up down a bit but did not cross below my sell point. Too late; by that point I had sold it. Despite this, I was barely down for the day, since my bond funds were up, and the rest of my stock funds are still hanging above their buy points. FMIEX, in fact hit another buy point, with the MACD crossing over into positive territory. I’ll be buying more of it tomorrow.

A nice up day, but on lower volume, following a bid down day on higher volume. All in all, this is not the sort of action you want to see at what we hope is the beginning of a new uptrend. But that’s the way it is, which means that the new uptrend is pretty tenuous and may not, in the end, pan out. Still, we were up today, and since we were up from the opening, I still have AGTHX, which finished the day back above the 66 day moving average and therefore back above my sell point. The worst mistake one can make in the market, however, is self-delusion, so I’m not going to delude myself. If tomorrow looks to be finishing decisively down, I’ll be selling AGTHX at the close.

Yesterday, I purchased AFTHX, NYVTX, CRMMX, FMIEX and EXTAX at the close. Today, the market, and my newly purchased funds, were down over 1%. It was a bad day, but since my total exposure to stocks, even after yesterday’s purchases, is still less than 10% of my total portfolio, I was singed rather than burnt. This is the way the game is played. When a new uptrend appears to be establishing itself, you don’t jump in with both feet. You test the waters. It was such a decisive move down today that AGTHX, purchased only yesterday, moved back below the 66 day moving average and will be sold tomorrow unless tomorrow is decisively upward. No matter, most of my money is sitting in cash, happily collecting 3.3%. So let us hope that tomorrow is better and I’ll start to bail out if it’s not.

The week ended up again, though again, not on particularly high volume. No matter, a number of the funds that I follow have hit their buy points, so it’s time to do some buying. Tomorrow, I’m going to put orders in to purchase CRMMX, NYVTX, EXTAX, FMIEX and AGTHX. All of these funds are above their 66 day moving average and the histograms on the MACD have gone positive. I will purchase approximately 25% of my ultimate position in each fund. When the MACD itself goes positive, I will purchase 25% more. Assuming the uptrend continues, I will then purchase another 25% on each of the first two pullbacks to reach my fully invested position.

Well, I dumped both of my short funds today, as it was another up day, albeit in mediocre volume. I lost a bit less than 2% on both of them. Meanwhile, MDY, my only stock mutual fund at present, was up, but neither of these events were particularly consequential for my portfolio, as my cash, bonds and bond funds constitute well over 95% of my total holdings at present. Basically, I’ve been nibbling at the edges of the market, waiting for a new trend to re-assert itself. After the close, the Fed raised the discount rate. That plus options expiration tomorrow could well lead to a volatile day tomorrow. Meanwhile, we’re treading water.

The market had another nice move up today, and I am still mostly in cash, but I am still no worse than the market (just a bit better, actually) for the year to date. NYVTX, AGTHX and all the other funds that I recently sold are back above their 110 day moving average, which is buy territory, but the MACD is still negative, so I’m holding off. Meanwhile, my two short funds, SH and DOG, both finished today slightly below the 66 day moving average, so unless the futures are negative in the morning, I’ll be selling both tomorrow.

The markets were up solidly today, but the volume was nothing special, which casts some doubt on whether or not this is a resumption of the uptrend or merely a head fake. MDY is back above both it’s 66 and 110 moving average and the histogram on the MACD is positive, so I bought $30,000 worth. Usually, I will wait until the MACD itself turns positive but I’m hedging. Both SH and DOG, short funds, have been moving down as the market moves back up. I’m going to balance the two moves out until it becomes clear which is the more decisive trend. Both SH and DOG are now close to sell points. Another down day or so will do it. Meanwhile, most of my money is in cash, collecting a nice 3.3%. I’m down about 1% for the year, while the market is still down a bit more than that. Follow the strategy, play the game…

The markets are closed today but the overseas action was pretty good. My two short funds are both back to baseline. Since these are meant to be hedges against a down market, and since down markets rarely last as long as up markets, my sell point for these funds is considerably tighter than for my long funds. I will sell these funds when they go below the 66 day moving average, only a per-cent or two below where they are now. What will tomorrow bring? Stay tuned…

It was a dull week, but a positive one. The market was down a bit Friday but up a bit for the week, on pretty good volume. Has the selling dried up? Too soon to say, of course. The new investing week begins on Tuesday, as the market is closed for the holiday on Monday. Sitting on cash, biding our time…

Today was up, but the volume was not impressive. Yesterday was down, but not my much. My two short funds are still up very slightly but nearing their sell points. My long funds (the ones that I recently sold but will buy back again when the time is right) are nowhere near their buy points. We’re marking time. Sometime soon, we’re either going to go back up or continue on down. Meanwhile, I’m sitting on a lot of cash.